Thoughts on the Election
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The Situation:
The statement by Vice-Presidential Nominee Joe Biden that Obama will face serious challenges within six months in office. Clearly, the intention of Senator Biden was to highlight that whichever candidate is chosen, that candidate will face serious challenges within six months of taking office, but pre-empted his candidates success by mentioning Obama personally. Naturally, the Republican party has jumped all over this as an opportunity to highlight Obama's so-called "inexperience."
The Opinion:
It won't hurt much but it will hurt. However, those who would be swayed by this argument were probably Republican leaning, anyway. Furthermore, this just seems like one more desperate attempt by the Republicans to save what many are beginning to believe is a failed cause. And, as Rex tried to find the exact news report only to find it buried under a plethora of other breaking news stories, he would suggest that people have forgotten about it, already (even though it was only yesterday!) However, it will probably rear its ugly head in last minute Obama Hate Commercials (remember how the Republicans played on Kerry's gaffe when he said, regarding the $87 billion dollar financing of the Iraq War, "I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it", confirming the Republicans designation of him as a flip-flopper?)
The Verdict:
Advantage McCain
The Situation:
Today and tomorrow, Obama will not be campaigning as he is travelling to Hawaii to visit his ailing grandmother (medical reports suggest that her prognosis is not good).
The Opinion:
The opinion breaks down into two categories - ie: this can be seen from two viewpoints. The positive viewpoint, and the one most highly reported, is the idea that Barack Obama is a man of strong family values in that he will potentially sacrifice his own career in order to be with an ailing family member. This shows good moral fibre which one would think would serve one well in the American mind. The negative viewpoint is that this is a man who is prepared to drop everything for a family crisis - while people are being killed in Iraq and Afghanistan, he puts everything on hold for one sickly old woman. Is this an indication of what we can expect to see when he's President? Initially Rex was surprised that the Republicans didn't jump all over this argument, but on the other hand, election time is a time for prudence and to make such an assertion would be to show incredible insensitivity and, while Rex doesn't agree with McCain's policies, he does respect the man in the sense that Rex doesn't think he would endorse his party making such a cheap shot (let's not forget him standing up to that stupid old woman who called Obama an Arab at a campaign rally).
Clearly those who like him will gravitate towards the former argument and those who don't will gravitate toward the latter. It's a crap shoot as to which argument those in the middle will favour. But the important thing to watch is how the Republicans behave while Obama isn't around to defend himself - Rex is sure that he will still be in contact with his campaign, but while the cat's away, the mice will certainly play.
The Verdict:
No Advantage
The Situation:
Colin Powell, the former head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under Ronald Reagan reported on Sunday that he will be voting for Barack Obama. Today, Rex read that former White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan has also announced an endorsement of Obama.
The Opinion:
Scott McClellan's endorsement is, in Rex's opinion, far more damaging than Powell's (although Powell's endorsement isn't to be understated). In many people's minds the Powell endorsement can be written off as racial solidarity. McClellan's endorsement has no such placating scapegoat. It is clear that top Republicans are jumping a sinking ship, not because they think McCain is unelectable, but because they know that McCain is not the right man for the job at this time.
The Verdict:
Strong Advantage Obama
The Situation:
Sarah Palin was given a $150,000 wardrobe for the campaign.
The Opinion:
Let's face it, everyone loves to take a shot a Sarah Palin. She's a not-too-bright nobody from a state that's so red that ketchup feels pale who was put in place merely as a lure for disgruntled Hillary supporters. Rex feels that everyone should know that the nomination of Sarah Palin as Vice-Presidential candidate was a moronic decision that should be seen as an indicator of the type of moronic decisions we can expect to get from a McCain Presidency. But as for the wardrobe, while it makes good late night fodder for Letterman, Leno and Stewart, the truth of the matter is, Rex doesn't really think anyone cares all that much. The McCain / Palin supporters will write it off as a cheap attack from those awful "liberals" while the Obama supporters will simply chuckle at the silliness of the Republican Party. They cannot, with any conscience, say that it's indicative of the Republicans' pandering to the wealthy as Obama outguns McCain on the financial front by almost two to one. At best it's a light hearted cocktail joke.
However, what people are not asking is "why can Sarah Palin not afford such couture for herself?" After all, politics is big business in the United States and, while Obama owns his own clothing, he also wears Gucci suits (or some other equally expensive brand). The successful politicans have money. So how successful can Palin be when the party has buy her her clothes?
The Verdict:
No Advantage
Other Thoughts:
Campaign Funding: The most telling sign, in this cycle, so far, for Rex, is the fundraising. Obama has secured almost twice as much money as McCain and more is rolling in. This is partially because McCain has accepted public funding which prohibits him raising funds at this point, but be that as it may it allows Obama to indulge in tactics that McCain, quite simply, cannot afford. The most notable is that Obama can fight from a purely financial point of view - he can spend money in advertising in "safe" Republican states and regions forcing the Republicans to defend their home turf and leaving them without the finances to campaign in the swing states where they really need the votes. Meanwhile, the Obama campaign, outspends them in those areas as well, essentially draining them of the financial capacity to campaign effectively - all they have left are their arguments which have been strongly tainted by eight years of the Bush regime.
This has Howard Dean's fingerprints all over it. Most of us remember Dr Dean as the hothead screaming out state names in a frantic, endorphin induced speech during the 2004 Democratic primaries when he, shortly afterwards, lost the nomination. But Dr Dean did finally find his calling as a behind the scenes organizer of the Democratic Party when he became Chairman. He's definitely better as a "behind the scenes" guy as was shown in 2006 when he implimented his "50 State Strategy." The idea was exactly as I just described. Don't just go after the middle ground - attack behind the lines and campaign in those bloody red states. This forces the opposition to campaign in those areas, too, leaving them weak in the middle ground. The result is history - his strategy pulled off the biggest Congressional power shift since Newt Gingrich led the Republican Party to congressional victory in 1994.
The Bush Legacy: Perhaps the most damaging effect on the McCain campaign has been the Bush legacy. With no end in sight to the Iraq War (a war which Americans, increasingly, are believing is one we should never have entered into in the first place), the recent spectacular collapse of the US economy, which is now working its way around the planet, and the threat of a full-blown recession (and, some are saying, possibly a depression, but that can only be calculated after the fact) it's becoming clear that this disaster is being blamed on the decisions made by Bush and the Republican Congress that stood for six of his eight years. Rome is burning and, unfortunately for McCain, Bush is shoving the lyre into McCain's hands before going back to Texas.
Experience: We're hearing a lot about Obama's relative lack of experience in global politics. In fact, it's the cornerstone of the the McCain campaign. While McCain can proudly boast that he's been to Waziristan (and, yes, people, Rex actually had to look it up on the map) he's trying to sell the wrong message. He wants people to believe that experience makes the difference. So what does he do? He chooses an equally inexperienced running mate who's only claim to world politics is her claim that she can see Russia from her house (which, of course, is nonsense - Wasilla, Alaska is over 600 miles from Russia Juno, where the Governer of Alaska resides is further). But be that as it may, experience isn't the issue in this election cycle. Change is and it's becoming evident that Obama is the man who will bring about change. While the McCain campaign boasts an attitude of change his policies reflect the same doctrine as the Bush administration. This is hardly a selling point.
The Polls: Political pundits love the polls. They love to say where the lead is, who is in the lead and what this will mean in the long run (ie: on Election day). But don't forget that Kerry was ahead in the national polls the day before Election Day in 2004 but still lost the election. The difference here is that the 2004 polls were erratic - one day Kerry was up and the next day Bush was up. Obama has held a convincing lead for over a month now. There was a dip today, but remember that that's before the Powell and McClellan endorsements have really had a chance to have an impact. Or, then again, the polls don't mean diddly.
The Paris Hilton Analogy: McCain attempted to discredit Obama by comparing him to socialite Paris Hilton - of star quality but of little substance. According to the polls it worked, for a time (or did it?). America can be criticized for many things, but showmanship is not one of them. Arnold Schwarzenegger became Governor of California based solely on his roles in film. Perhaps what America is craving is another star in the White House?
Negative Advertising: Both candidates do it, but Obama has the money to include positive advertising as well as keep up with the Jones's. The word on the street is that negative advertising is detrimental. Only time will tell.
The Bin Laden Factor: On the weekend before election day in 2004 Osama Bin Laden released a tape that essentially said "I'm still here. Nya nya nya." Many political analyists felt that this killed the Kerry campaign because 9/11 was still fresh in people's minds and he could bring the message of the Republican superiority when it comes to matters of national security (which Rex and I still ponder on - how can the world's most powerful nation be insecure? Or is it a question of cause and effect?) But what if Bin Laden showed his face now? It would definitely send a message of "Oh yeah, that's right. We were supposed to get that guy." But how would it manifest itself? Would the public think "And, of course, the Republican is always better at national security so let's go to McCain" or would they think "Well, he's still out there. Clearly the Republicans have been monkey-botching the job. Let's give the other guy a chance."
In the debates and in his speeches Obama has been reminding the public, over and over, that Bin Laden is still out there and he will focus on getting him. McCain has retorted by saying "I know how to get Bin Laden." Rex and I are sure we're not the only ones asking "then why didn't you tell Mr Bush?"
Conclusion: Advantage Obama (but there's still 11 days to go) |
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